Climate CPR Paper
by
The Professor
Introduction
The subject of this paper is climate change. Climate change has the potential to affect the ability of the Earth to support life as we know it. At the least, it will have minor effects, but at worst it could alter climate zones, disrupt economic systems, and reduce the quality of life drastically [:(Cmnt by william prothero: The introduction for this paper is short, and weak ):] .Causes_of_Climate_Change
Changes in the atmosphere cause global and local climate variations. {link: c_GHFig6LabBk.jpg}Figure 1 shows a diagram, from the Oceanography Lab book, figure 6, Lab Section 6, illustrating the average effect of various phenomena that affect the climate. From this figure, we can see that, on the average, 30% of the sun's incident energy is reflected back to space. The other 70% is absorbed and warms the earth. This 70% is radiated back to space by the warm earth. The earth's temperature increases until the amount reflected and radiated back to space equals the incident solar radiation.The amount that the atmosphere warms the earth is affected by the concentration of greenhouse gases. The major greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide (CO2). The strongest greenhouse gas is water, but it is generally believed that its concentration is not a direct effect of human activity.
The greenhouse gases leave the atmosphere by being dissolved in the surface waters of the ocean, which eventually sink in the North Atlantic. The phenomenon where ocean currents carry dissolved gases and other constituents, as well as heat, is called the global ocean conveyor belt.
Clouds also affect the earth's climate.
Aerosols also affect the earth's climate. These are caused by volcanic eruptions and air pollution. For example, a dimming of the earth's sunlight, by 22%, has been observed over the past 50 years. This is thought to be due to increased global pollution (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4171591.stm) [:(Cmnt by william prothero: This description could have been more comprehensive. There is no mention of the earth's albedo or greenhouse gas residence times. The clouds discussion could also have been a bit more comprehensive ):] .
Earth_Climate_History
The earth's climate history has been studied analyzing ice and sediment cores, tree rings. The longest term temperature data for the last 400,000yrs comes from ice and sediment cores at the Vostok site in Antarctica. {link: c_VolstokImage.jpg}Figure 2 shows the drilling rig and f{link: c_Temp400Kyrs.jpg}igure 3 shows the temperature and CO2 plot, from the analysis of the oxygen isotopes and trapped CO2 in this core. The current average temperature is shown as a solid horizontal line.{link: c_Temp_20K.jpg}Figure 4 shows a temperature and CO2 concentration record for the last 20,000 years, a time period when the last ice age was ending. It clearly shows the warming, which begins about 18,000 yrs before now.
{link: c_Temp1Kyr.jpg}Figure 5 shows the temperature history for the last 1,000 years. These data are from a variety of sources, including tree rings, ice cores, corals, and historical records. {link: c_temp1880.jpg}Figure 6 shows a detailed plot of the temperature since 1880 [:(Cmnt by william prothero: The references are poor and the relationship between temperature and CO2 is not discussed. ):] .
Historical_Climate_Change
{link: c_temp1880.jpg}Figure 6 shows the global average temperature since 1880 and the New York temperature, the US Average, and global average since 1950 .Note that the global average temperature has risen about 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C since 1880. The New York temperature varies about the US and global averages, which show a lot less fluctuation because of the averaging effect.
{link: c_CO21880.jpg}Figure 7 shows the CO2 rise since 1880. Notice that the more detailed Mauna Loa data that shows the seasonal effect of the breathing of the planet starts in 1958.
The two data plots show increasing temperature and CO2 concentrations.
In order to underscore the significance of this recent temperature rise, {link: c_400KyrRecord.jpg}figure 8 shows the 400,000 year temperature record, plotted with the current temperature, showing a precipitous rise during the last 50 years [:(Cmnt by william prothero: No data references. Methods of getting the temperature data not discussed. No discussion of relationship between CO2 and temperature. ):] .
Climate_Change_Scenarios
The most likely climate scenario is tha there will be an ice age due to melting of the glaciers at the poles. This is caused because of all the fresh water pouring into the North Atlantic ocean [:(Cmnt by william prothero: Author neglected to discuss the possibility that temperatures continue to rise due to increased CO2. The possibility of economic and social disruption was not mentioned. References weak. ):] .The most unsettling discussion of climate change scenarios is contained in a pentagon-funded report. They discuss consequences of the following scenario, which is plausible:
-- Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe ¥ Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.
-- Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
-- Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.
Some of the geo-political consequences predicted are:
--Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe ¥ Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa. '
-- Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.
--Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds. These consequences could happen due to abrupt climate change, regardless of which of the above temperature change scenarios occurs.
In the authors suggest:
As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national honor.
A recent news article in the Santa Barbara New Press summarizes a presentation by Dr. Tim Barnett of Scripps Institute of Oceanography. His data finds that the temperature of the ocean has risen between 1969 and 1999, as predicted by global warming models. The ocean temperature averages out the variations that the atmosphere shows, so is a better indicator of global warming than air temperature averages. He and Dr. Ruth Curry, of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, estimate that about half of the fresh water needed to cut off the north Atlantic deep water circulation has already been melted from the Arctic ice caps.
Another effect of the melting of the ice caps is sea level rise. Land along low-lying coastal areas would be inundated. {link: c_flrda_5mRise.jpg}Figure 9 shows how Florida would look if the West Antarctic ice sheet melted and caused a seal level rise of 5 meters. Of course, if climate changes moves toward an ice age, ice would increase at the poles and sea level would drop.
A document posted at the National Academy web site lists a number of possible climate change effects. These are:
1) regional changes in agriculture and forestry due to changes in precipitation and temperature.
2) changes in water supply and quality, good or bad
3) increased spread of infectious diseases
4) undesirable changes in ecosystems due to an inability to adapt quickly to environmental changes
Policy_Recommendations
It is clear that the driving phenomenon in climate change is our CO2 emissions. Other pollutants should not be ignored. Two major developments have been initiated that address this issue. These are the Kyoto Protocol and carbon emissions trading. These will be discussed below. The United States government is resisting taking firm action to limit greenhouse emissions [:(Cmnt by william prothero: More details on the requirements of the Kyoto Protocol would have increased the score for this section. ):] .The Kyoto Protocol was developed as an agreement between nations to limit CO2 emissions. The protocol requires all industrialized countries to reduce emissions of 6 greenhouse gases by 5% relative to 1997 levels.
The Kyoto protocol has been ratified by the European Union, Czech Republic, Romania, Japan, Poland, New Zealand, and Canada. The US has not ratified it because President Bush argues that the science is not good enough to take the risk of damaging our economy. They also argue that it is not fair to the US because developing nations are not required to cut emissions, even though the US puts about 1/3 of the global CO2 emissions into the atmosphere.
Carbon emissions trading builds on free trade and the capitalistic system to promote emissions reductions. Each industry is allotted a certain amount of carbon emission. If the emissions are less than the allotted amount, the excess (credits) can be sold to others who may not be able to meet their allotments. This system encourages emissions reductions because these reductions can be sold as emission credits. This makes it possible for an industry to offset its costs for improvements that will increase efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. Apparently, it is working well in Europe.
References
Atmospheric Gases PBS Site:
Vostok Data:
Barnola, J. M., D. Raynaud, Y. S. Korotkevich and C. Lorius, 1987, Vostok ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2, Nature, 329, 408-414.
CO2 since 1880
http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/biotrends/trends_climchange.html
National Academies:
http://www4.nationalacademies.org/onpi/webextra.nsf/web/climate?OpenDocument
Kyoto Protocol:
(http://environment.about.com/od/kyotoprotocol/a/aa090402a.htm) [:(Cmnt by william prothero: References here are fine, but not linked to the text. ):]
Figure 1. Diagram of atmospheric factors that influence the earth's climate. The numbers shown are averages over the entire globe and will vary at specific locations. {fig: c_GHFig6LabBk.jpg}
Figure 2. Drilling ice cores at the Vostok site in Antarctica. {fig: c_VolstokImage.jpg}
Figure 3. Temperature and CO2 concentrations from ice core data. {fig: c_Temp400Kyrs.jpg}
Figure 4. Temperature and CO2 record for the last 20,000 years. {fig: c_Temp_20K.jpg}
Figure 5. Temperature history and CO2 for the last 1,000 years. {fig: c_Temp1Kyr.jpg}
Figure 6. Annual mean temperature anomalies since 1880. The figure on the right shows the temperature changes in New York (red), the US mean (blue), and the global mean (green). On the average, they track pretty well, on the average. {fig: c_temp1880.jpg}
Figure 6. Annual mean temperature anomalies since 1880. The figure on the right shows the temperature changes in New York (red), the US mean (blue), and the global mean (green). On the average, they track pretty well, on the average. {fig: c_temp1880.jpg}
Figure 7. CO2 concenration in the atmosphere since 1880. {fig: c_CO21880.jpg}
Figure 8. Vostok temperature record, with global average for the last 200 years represented by the red line. Notice the precipitous rise in temperature near 0 years. {fig: c_400KyrRecord.jpg}